A Follow Up to ‘My Predictions for Stocks’

March 17, 2016 by

Good Afternoon from a lovely sunny Bristol.

Its been a few months - but I'm back.  And we're going to kick this year's posts off by revisiting the predictions I made back in September 2015.

Wait - let me just grab a Diet Coke...

Okay back.  And refreshed.

Let's start with my first prediction...

Prediction 1: The Stock Market is Only Heading Lower

You know... this isn't too far off.

When I made the prediction, I talked about global trade signals, a weak China, the rate hike...

Nothing's really changed.

And I think that's a large part of why we've been seeing a lot of volatility.  Each crazy swing, is like a human with tonsillitis swallowing.  The human is ill - but functioning - overall, but there's a bit of pain every now and then.

So was I right or wrong?

Well, half and half.

Next...

Prediction 2: The Price of Gold Will Rise (Hello Junior Miners)

Now this I'm ticking up as a 'win'.

The price of the yellow metal has been picking up as investors fear NIRP or a total stock market crash.

The SPDR Gold ETF has got back to where it was in late 2014:

Screen Shot 2016-03-17 at 14.37.40

Its nowhere near its 2011 highs - but just this recent rise has made my portfolio look great.

My 3rd...

Prediction 3: Oil prices will rise again

Well, they're rising.  Though I'll be honest... I thought they would rise a lot sooner than they have.  And I did not see WTI crude going sub-30.

But the prices are rising.  How long for?  Who knows.

I'm not going to claim this one as a win - so we'll mark it down as being 'wrong'.

And my 4th...

Prediction 4: Greece will need yet another bailout

This was a long-term prediction, but its only got worse for Greece since...

Not only are they still in bad financial shape, but now they're dealing of the burden of hundreds of thousands of refugees.

We'll have to see how it plays out.  But right now, it doesn't look good.

So there you go...

I didn't do too badly did I?  After all, I'm no economist or stock market expert.

Anyhoo...

Time to get on.

Until next time,

Chris

P.S. Want to work with me?  Go here.

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